Muirfield Village Golf Club in Dublin, Ohio, welcomes back many of the PGA Tour’s best golfers for the Memorial Tournament. This is the second-to-last tune-up event for the 2021 US Open at Torrey Pines from June 17-20. Below, we’ll look for the best value prop bets in the 2021 Memorial Tournament odds, with matchups, placings and first-round leader picks and predictions.
This week’s field is headlined by nine of the top-15 golfers in the Golfweek/Sagarin world rankings. Defending champion of the Memorial Tournament Jon Rahm returns atop those rankings in search of his first win of 2021. Reigning U.S. Open champ Bryson DeChambeau likely makes his final preparations for the major at a course where he won in 2018.
Muirfield Village underwent a major overhaul since hosting the Workday Charity Open and the Memorial in back-to-back weeks last summer. Among the renovations, fairways were tightened with the addition of trees and most greens were altered.
2021 Memorial Tournament picks: Matchups (72 holes)
Odds provided by BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday at 11:24 a.m. ET.
Jon Rahm vs. Jordan Spieth (+120)
Rahm won the 2020 Memorial Tournament by three strokes at 9-under par. It was the highest winning score since Tiger Woods won at the same number in 2012, as the course played extremely firm, fast, and difficult ahead of the renovations.
Muirfield should play much easier this week and will take some advantage away from Golfweek’s top-ranked player. Spieth is far more experienced than Rahm in Dublin, Ohio, with 32 career rounds played at this venue to Rahm’s 10, and is in the better form with five top-five finishes in his last six events.
Hideki Matsuyama vs. Tony Finau (-110)
Finau and Matsuyama rank 13 and 14th, respectively, in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR). While Matsuyama won the Masters in April and won at Muirfield in 2014, Finau has been much more consistent in 2021 with five top-10 finishes through 11 stroke-play events in North America.
Finau also has the superior short game and putting stroke.
2021 Memorial Tournament picks: Placings
Top 5: Justin Thomas (+350)
Thomas has played 26 career rounds at Muirfield with an average of 1.36 strokes gained on the field per round. He’s second on Tour this season in Strokes Gained: Approach per round and sixth among qualified golfers in SG: Tee-to-Green.
Though he enters the week 11th in the Golfweek rankings, he’s the best player in the field by the OWGR at No. 2.
Top 10: Tony Finau (+225)
This is an excellent venue for Finau and his underrated short game. He led the field with 1.57 SG: Around-the-Green per round at the PGA Championship en route to yet another top-10 finish in a major. He routinely ups his game at big events and at tough courses.
As discussed on Bet Slippin’ Podcast, he’s offered at an inflated price in these fields solely due to his lack of victories since the 2016 Puerto Rico Open.
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2021 Memorial Tournament picks: First-round leader
Rory McIlroy (+2500)
When betting first-round leaders, it’s essential to always check the weather report for the Thursday of a tournament. McIlroy seems to be in line to draw the favorable tee times in the first two rounds, with a 1:44 p.m. ET start Thursday. Morning rain will clear to leave the course playing softer in the late afternoon.
He returned to the winner’s circle at the recent Wells Fargo Championship and is now at another course where he has often played well, with an average of 1.78 strokes gained per round over 32 career rounds at Muirfield.
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