Well, I’m going to be honest with you, this week might be rough.
The Sanderson Farms Championship is the first tournament removed from the Ryder Cup, the second event of the young season and many of the best players in the world are not making the trip to Mississippi.
Sergio Garcia, who is defending his title at the Sanderson Farms Championship this week, is the only Ryder Cup player in the field. To go even further, there isn’t a player ranked inside the top 20 in the world teeing it up this week (Sam Burns, the highest ranked player, is No. 25).
On the other hand, a weak field doesn’t mean we can’t win any money. Let’s dive in and see if we can find some nice value plays on the board.
Golf course
Country Club of Jackson
Par 72
7,461 yards
A 2008 redesign is reflected in the greens. Many were shaped to what legendary course architect Donald Ross liked to see in putting surfaces: run-off areas and angulation, among other things.
Tree-lined fairways make driving accuracy an advantage. Even though past winners hit just over 50% of fairways, finding the short grass will give better sight lines into greens.
Weather
| Day | Conditions | Percent chance of rain | Wind & Direction |
| Tuesday | Scattered Thunderstorms | 52% | 7 MPH (S) |
| Wednesday | Thunderstorms | 69% | 7 MPH (SSE) |
| Thursday | Showers | 57% | 7 MPH (SE) |
| Friday | Partly Cloudy | 24% | 8 MPH (SE) |
| Saturday | Partly Cloudy | 13% | 9 MPH (SSE) |
| Sunday | Scattered Thunderstorms | 57% | 7 MPH (S) |
Key stats
Total driving: At this course, it’s about marrying driving distance and driving accuracy. Players will need to have an overall great performance off the tee to find their way into contention.
SG: Putting: Data Golf calculates what Strokes Gained category causes the most variation in scores at each event, or each golf course. At the Sanderson Farms in 2020, SG: Putting caused 40.6% of the scoring variation. For reference, the Tour average last season was 35.7%. So, to be in the mix come Sunday, players will have to roll the rock.
Data Golf information
Course Fit (compares golf courses based off the degree to which different golfer attributes — such as driving distance — predict who performs well at each course – DataGolf): 1. Atunyote GC, 2. Torrey Pines (North), 3. Accordia Golf Narashino
Trending (among the players in the field): 1. Sam Burns (last three starts: T-18, 8, T-21), Sungjae Im (T-20, 3 T-16), 3. Sergio Garcia (T-14, T-6, MC)
Percent chance to win (based on course history, fit, trending, etc.): Sam Burns (4.7%), 2. Sergio Garcia (4.3%), 3. Will Zalatoris (4.3%)
Betting odds
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds a full list.
| Sam Burns (+1500) | Will Zalatoris (+2000) |
| Sergio Garcia (+2000) | Corey Connors (+2000) |
| Sungjae Im (+2000) | Charley Hoffman (+3000) |
| Cameron Tringale (+3000) | Mito Pereira (+3000) |
| Seamus Power (+4000) | Kevin Streelman (+4000) |
Players to watch
Will Zalatoris – One of these weeks, I’m going to be right about this. Will Zalatoris needs to win at some point, and I think this is a great opportunity for him to do so. Six of the last eight winners at the Sanderson Farms were first-time Tour winners.
He’s coming off a solid T11 performance in Napa. He was 5th in the field in SG: Tee to Green, but his putter was a bit frigid. His putting stroke makes me borderline uncomfortable, but he will have to get it going if he wants any chance to win.
He was inside the top 25 in driving distance last season on Tour, only hitting 56% of fairways, but remember that’s right around the number the winner has hit at this golf course over the last several years.
+2000 to win.
Will Zalatoris hits his tee shot on the first hole during round two of the Fortinet Championship at Silverado Resort and Spa on September 17, 2021 in Napa, California. (Photo by Meg Oliphant/Getty Images)
Corey Connors – I made a lot of money on this guy during the Florida stretch (and on up the coast) last year as he finished third at Arnold Palmer Invitational, seventh at the Players, eighth at Augusta, and fourth at the RGC Heritage. He cooled off a bit after that, but had a solid finish to his season, with five top-25 finishes in his last six starts (that includes the Tour Championship and Olympics).
He only averaged 295 off the box last year, but was eighth in SG: Off the Tee. On top of that, he was ninth in SG: Approach last year – his tee-to-green performance was one of the best on Tour.
His tournament history is great, with a top 20 last season and a solo runner-up in 2018.
+2000 to win
Mito Pereira – Another young player looking for his first win on Tour. Last season, he had three straight top 10s in weaker field events. There’s also a lot to like about his performance a few weeks ago in Napa: third-place finish, led the field in SG: Tee to Green, sixth in driving accuracy and averaged 318 off the tee.
+3000 to win
Harold Varner III – I’m not saying Varner is going to win, but he’s a great target for a top-20 or top-30 play.
He’s finished inside the top 20 in five of his last seven starts, including T16 or better in his last three (T-16 in Napa a few weeks ago). He struggled hitting fairways in California, but he rolled it, gaining nearly five strokes on the field over the week.
He joined the Tour at the start of the 2015-16 season, and is still looking for his first win. He’s only played in this event twice, with his best finish coming back in 2015 (T-39).
+4000 to win.
Harold Varner III at the 2021 Northern Trust at Liberty National Golf Course in Jersey City, New Jersey. Photo by John Minchillo)/Associated Press
And finally, a quick note on the defending champion…
Sergio in his 1st start following the Ryder Cup since 2008:
2008 – 2nd
2012 – T-9
2014 – T-2
2016 – T-17
2018 – WonDefending champion this week at the Sanderson Farms.
— Justin Ray (@JustinRayGolf) September 28, 2021