Until last week, everything looked great, and the English Premier League was already envisioning a fifth representative in the Champions League from next season… Let’s remind ourselves that two additional spots in the Champions League are awarded to countries whose clubs have achieved the best results for the national coefficient in European competitions this season. As the Italians practically secured one spot with well-balanced results from all clubs in all competitions, the English were absolute favourites ahead of the Germans for the second spot. Manchester City is the favourites against Real Madrid in the Champions League quarterfinals, plus Arsenal with a good chance to eliminate the shaken Bayern Munich. Liverpool is the absolute favourite in the Europa League, West Ham has a good chance to go far in the same competition, and Aston Villa is the favourite to reach the final in the Conference League. The treble seemed within their reach…UCL: City hit Real’s defensive wall and lost the title in ManchesterIt didn’t even start badly because City remained undefeated in Madrid, and Arsenal showed they were on par with Bayern. After the first quarter-final matches of the Champions League, the English had a golden opportunity. Translated into numbers, the Italians had a 98.2% chance of a fifth representative, the English 84.4%, and the Germans only 17.0%. They had identical national coefficients this season – 16.500. But, in the quarterfinals, the English had five representatives compared to Germany’s three. A massive advantage. However, Liverpool suffered a debacle at Anfield against Atalanta, and West Ham lost to Leverkusen by two goals in a direct duel between English and German teams. Only Villa justified their role as favourites against Lille. However, even that one-goal difference is not a significant guarantee before the second leg in France. English chances fell to 57.8%, while German chances rose to 41.8%.UCL: No surprise in Munich, Bayern eliminate ArsenalThe English were still in a better position. City was the favourite against Real, and Arsenal had decent chances in Munich. With their qualifications for the semifinals and Aston Villa in the Conference League, they could even compensate for Liverpool and West Ham’s likely eliminations from the Europa League. Especially since Borussia didn’t have good prospects ahead of the second leg against Atletico. But it went from bad to worse. Borussia brought points to Germany by eliminating Atletico. Bayern knocked out Arsenal in a direct duel, adding more points to Germany’s tally, and Real left the Premier League without a representative in the semifinals of the elite competition after four years, winning on penalties. If Liverpool doesn’t pull off a miracle in Bergamo, and West Ham doesn’t overturn their two-goal deficit against the excellent Leverkusen, the Germans can celebrate having a fifth representative in the Champions League because all English hopes rest on Aston Villa, who would have to win every match in the Conference League until the end. Even then, the Germans would rely solely on themselves and the results of Bayern, Borussia, and Leverkusen until the end.UEL: Moyes’ underachievers hope of hammering Europe’s sweetheartThe Germans now have a coefficient of 17.642, while the English have 16.875. Everything could be decided as early as today if Leverkusen triumphs again against West Ham, and Liverpool fails to eliminate Atalanta. Borussia could then face the rest of the season with less pressure, knowing that even fifth place in the Bundesliga guarantees them Champions League football, and they are currently level on points with fourth-placed Leipzig. A big relief for both clubs… On the other hand, Aston Villa will have to engage in a fierce battle for fourth place with Tottenham. It seemed like they would both make it to the Champions League as fourth and fifth, as they had pulled significantly ahead of Manchester United and Newcastle. However, now they face a gruelling race. Villa are three points ahead and have one game in hand over Tottenham, who have tough Premier League matches against Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, and Manchester City in their remaining five fixtures!UEFA EUROPA LEAGUEQuarterfinals – second legThursday22:00: (4.80) Atalanta (3.90) Liverpool (1.70)22:00: (3.80) West Ham (3.60) Leverkusen (2.05)22:00: (2.45) Olympique Marseille (3.50) Benfica (3.00)22:00: (3.00) Roma (3.45) Milan (2.50)***odds are subject to change***
