Going into the final group game of the 2024 COSAFA Cup, Kenya finds itself needing nothing short of a win, to ideally make it into the last four of the tournament.As per the tournament guidelines, the teams that finish top of Groups A, B and C qualify automatically to the semis, with the extra spot going to the nation that finishes as the best second-placed team.##NAJAVA_MECA_8191009##And after having lost 2-0 to Comoros in their second pool game, Kenya is in the dreaded position of having to win first on Tuesday afternoon against Zimbabwe, before hoping that results in the other groups go their way.Their desired outcome is out of their hands, but they can make it easier on themselves with a win this afternoon; kickoff is at 1300 EAT live on FIFA+ and the COSAFA Youtube Channel.This article tries to carve a path in which Ken Odhiambo’s team with a win today, can make it to the semis slated for Friday 5 July.COSAFA CUP: Harambee Stars face Zimbabwe in must win final group duelGroup ANo sweating over anythingWith the assertion that Kenya wins, no one should cross their fingers watching the final games of Group A.All teams therein are tied on two points, and the most the top two sides can pick is 5 points, short of Kenya’s suggested total of 6 points.With that, Kenya – if not at the top of Group B as explained below – would still make it as the better second-placed nation.
Group BHeavy Kenya win and no Comoros victoryIn Zimbabwe, Kenya faces the leader of the pool, who is on 6 points and with a plus three goal difference.In the case Kenya are to top the group and qualify automatically, they need nothing short of a 3-0 win, that would put them also on 6 points and with a similar goal difference.What would give Kenya the edge in this case, would be the high number of goals scored = 5, versus the 3 that Zimbabwe have so far scored.That, however, will have to be hinged on a Comoros defeat or draw, to prevent them from matching Kenya’s total of 6 points, which knocks out Kenya twice: on goal difference (Comoros are on plus one), and on head-to-head.The latter outcome, would come in handy, if Kenya is to win irregardless of the score-line, and potentially hold second spot in the group.
Group CNo win for Angola or NamibiaIn Group C, both Angola and Namibia are on four points in first and second place with an identical goal difference of 1.They both however face beatable sides in Lesotho and Seychelles respectively, putting much onus on one of the two to spoil the party.Granted, it would be better if both Angola or Namibia lose out – and all remain on 4 points – but still okay if one wins (to get top spot), and the other either draws (to be on five points maximum and one shy of Kenya for the race to be the top second-best) or loses either way.
That’s the array of possibilities Kenya faces, but they have to do their job first. Beat Zimbabwe and wait.