The Premier League’s expected points table for this season so far has been revealed after a supercomputer ran thousands of simulations, leading to some surprising results.Liverpool are at the top heading into the season’s second international break, with new manager Arne Slot enjoying a dream start to his tenure at Anfield.Manchester City and Arsenal follow close behind, with just one point separating the top three teams after seven games, while Chelsea have shined under Enzo Maresca’s leadership.##EDITORS_CHOICE##Erik ten Hag’s third season at Manchester United was expected to see them challenge for the title. Instead, they have endured their worst-ever start to a Premier League campaign and remain in 14th place.However, Opta’s supercomputer has crunched the numbers and predicted that while some clubs are performing as expected, others might consider themselves fortunate to be sitting as high as they are.The expected points model uses statistics from the season to simulate where each of the 20 competing teams should be, based on the expected goals (xG) value of each shot taken, with each match simulated 10,000 times.𝐎𝐩𝐭𝐚’𝐬 𝐄𝐱𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐏𝐨𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐬 𝐓𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞It’s early days, but the 2024-25 Premier League table based on Opta’s expected points model throws up some interesting results…Chelsea in second? Arsenal in eighth!? 👀Tap below to read more ⬇️— Opta Analyst (@OptaAnalyst) October 7, 2024 The computer model has picked Liverpool to top the table going into the international break based on their performances so far — one of the rare cases where reality matches the data.Chelsea — spurred on by Cole Palmer’s exceptional goal-scoring form — might feel hard done by sitting in fourth place, while Opta’s expected points table has them sitting second.If the Blues can meet these expectations, challenging the league leaders would be a remarkable result for Maresca after a tumultuous few years at the club.The Blues are currently predicted to sit above their London rivals, Arsenal, with Mikel Arteta’s side—despite being third in the actual table — down in 8th position according to Opta’s metrics, after several close matches where the Gunners barely escaped with points.The data shows Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City slipping from second to third, with Tottenham in fourth and Aston Villa in fifth.##NAJAVA_MECA_8398448##Fulham and Bournemouth can take heart from their strong starts, as both improve their positions based on the data — from eighth to sixth for Fulham, and an impressive jump from 13th to seventh place for the Cherries.On the other hand, Manchester United might feel frustrated, as they could be as high as 10th place if they were living up to their xG metrics.At the bottom of the table, Wolves, Leicester, and Ipswich occupy the relegation spots in the expected points table, while in reality, those positions belong to Crystal Palace and Southampton, giving the newly promoted sides some relief.
